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The Markets Higher rates are doing what they’re supposed to do. Last week, Federal Reserve officials spoke about keeping the federal funds rate higher until it becomes clear that inflation will reach the Fed’s two percent target rate. While people typically don’t mind earning more interest on their saving and investment accounts, higher rates are painful for consumers. That pain is why higher rates help lower inflation. They discourage borrowing and cause people to buy fewer goods. Lower demand for goods and services should lead to lower inflation, reported Trina Paul of CNBC. So far, the biggest fly in [...]

The Markets What will the Federal Reserve do? Uncertainty about the direction and timing of Fed rate cuts is causing stock markets in the United States to charge and retreat. U.S. stocks rallied for five consecutive months (anticipating rate cuts early in 2024) before retreating in April after higher-than-anticipated inflation suggested the Fed might delay any rate reductions. Markets retreated early last week on concerns the Fed might take a more hawkish tone following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting – but it did not. Following the meeting, the FOMC release stated: “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity [...]

The Markets The economy appears to be slowing down. Last week, many investors were focused on economic data. The Personal Consumption report offers information about Americans’ income and spending over the previous month. It includes one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauges, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. The March report showed: Disposable income, which is the amount of money available for Americans to spend and save (after taxes), rose by 1.4 percent, year-over-year. The U.S. personal saving rate moved lower, falling to 3.2 percent, year-over-year. Consumer spending was higher than expected, up 0.8 percent from February [...]

The Markets Investors have been recalibrating their expectations. There is a lot going on in the world that could affect the value of financial markets – wars, tensions between major powers, a strong dollar, and rising oil prices – just to name a few. Last week, it was Federal Reserve policy. The possibility that the Fed might keep rates higher for longer shook investors, reported Naomi Rovnick of Reuters.  At a policy forum early in the week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the audience: “The performance of the U.S. economy over the past year has really been quite strong. [...]

The Markets Inflation and geopolitics and earnings. Oh, my! It was a rough week for stock markets. “The S&P 500 closed 1.5% lower on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.6%. Every S&P 500 sector closed lower—and just about 40 stocks in the index finished the day with gains,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. A trio of issues caused investors to reassess their expectations for the year. Here’s what many were thinking about: Prices rising at home. Early last week, the Consumer Price Index showed prices had moved higher in March. Headline inflation was 3.5 percent year-over-year, up from [...]

The Markets The bull charged from October 2023 through March 2024. Last week, it took a breather. Optimistic may be the best word to describe the first quarter of 2024. From the start of the year, investors were confident that an economic soft landing in the United States was possible. The U.S. stock market reflected investors’ conviction that: The U.S. economy would continue to demonstrate resilience; Inflation would continue toward the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s target; and The Fed would eventually lower the federal funds rate, pushing borrowing costs down and boosting economic growth. Over the first quarter, the Standard [...]

The Markets What do dieters have in common with the Federal Reserve? If you’ve ever dieted, you may be familiar with the weight-loss plateau. Many people experience steady progress. The bathroom scale moves lower week by week – until it doesn’t – and that can be discouraging. The Federal Reserve has been trying to reduce inflation, and it has had significant success. Its actions are credited with bringing headline inflation from a peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022 to 3.2 percent in February 2024, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. Looking back over the last few months, [...]

The Markets The central banks have spoken. No one expected the United States Federal Reserve to announce a rate change last week – and it didn’t. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the actions of other central banks led to new records being set in stock markets around the world, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s. “…the world’s central banks, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve…have all but green-lighted lower policy interest rates in coming months in the expectation that inflation will continue to make downward progress without triggering recessions. The Fed’s counterparts at the European Central Bank and [...]

The Markets Here’s the tea on stock markets and presidential elections. Last week, a slew of headlines mentioned stock market bubbles and frothy valuations. The implication was that markets might be headed lower because they’ve risen so high. Last Wednesday, Lewis Krauskopf of Reuters reported: “Some market participants believe the relentless U.S. stock rally is poised for a breather, even if it remains unclear whether equities are in a bubble or a strong bull run. The benchmark S&P 500…is up over 25% in the last five months, a phenomenon that has occurred just 10 times since the 1930s, according [...]

The Markets The week got off to a good start... In testimony before House and Senate committees, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell noted that prices had been falling and unemployment rates remained quite low. As a result, he expected the Fed to begin lowering the federal funds rate in 2024. “I think we’re in the right place,” he said. “We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at two percent. When we do get that confidence—and we’re not far from it—it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction so that we [...]