9 11, 2021

Weekly Market Commentary – Feeling bullish…

2021-11-09T13:15:27-04:00November 9th, 2021|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Feeling bullish… Investor bullishness ticked higher last week on all four investor sentiment gauges tracked by Barron’s. Investor optimism may have been fanned by positive financial and economic news. For example, last week: The jobs report was better than expected. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 531,000 new jobs were added in October, lowering the unemployment rate to 4.6%. In addition, the employment numbers for August and September were better than previously reported. The BLS Employment Diffusion Index measures the breadth of employment gains across the economy. It rose from 63.6 in September to [...]

2 11, 2021

Weekly Market Commentary – The road to recovery is slow and bumpy.

2021-11-02T11:07:13-04:00November 2nd, 2021|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets The road to recovery is slow and bumpy. Last week, we learned that economic growth slowed in the third quarter as a new wave of COVID-19 surged across the United States, reported The Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in the United States, increased by 2 percent annualized in the third quarter. Consumer spending dropped sharply during the period. The change may reflect the limited availability of goods due to supply-chain issues, a reluctance to pay higher prices, or a drop in disposable personal income. Jeff [...]

27 10, 2021

Weekly Market Commentary – It’s MESSI!

2021-10-27T11:10:08-04:00October 27th, 2021|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets It’s MESSI! No, this commentary is not about Lionel Messi, the Argentine soccer phenom who is widely regarded one of the greatest footballers of all time. However, it is about something that economists say may be as rare as Messi’s talent: Moderating Expansion with Sticky Supply-driven Inflation (MESSI). You can see why we prefer the acronym. MESSI is a type of inflation that occurs when “strong, but cooling demand is met by constrained, but accelerating supply, leading to transitory, yet sticky inflation.”1 The coronavirus pandemic may have produced just the right circumstances, according to Gregory Daco of [...]

19 10, 2021

Weekly Market Commentary – Don’t get spooked!

2021-10-19T09:18:50-04:00October 19th, 2021|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Don’t get spooked! Barron’s Big Money Poll is an exclusive survey of market sentiment among professional investors. Last week, Nicholas Jasinski reported on 2021’s findings: “America’s money managers are optimistic about the long-term outlook for the economy, the financial markets, and the recovery from the [COVID-19] pandemic. It’s the short-term prognosis that concerns them. Monetary and fiscal policies are in flux. Supply-chain bottlenecks and labor shortages are igniting inflation and threatening corporate profit margins, and the economic recovery from 2020’s recession –so robust until now – is decelerating. Add pricey stock valuations and rising bond yields, and the [...]

12 10, 2021

Weekly Market Commentary – The word “jouncy” may have started life as a combination of bouncy and jolting – and it’s a pretty good way to describe what happened to stock markets last week.

2021-10-12T09:55:12-04:00October 12th, 2021|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets The word “jouncy” may have started life as a combination of bouncy and jolting – and it’s a pretty good way to describe what happened to stock markets last week. The week started with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index experiencing daily gains and losses of about one percent. Other major U.S. indices saw sizeable daily swings in value, too. Lu Wang of Bloomberg reported: “The harrowing reversals reflect a particularly stark divide between bull and bear cases in markets right now. On one side, risk appetites are being constricted by lingering uncertainty over the government debt [...]

5 10, 2021

Weekly Market Commentary – September strikes again…

2021-10-05T11:29:53-04:00October 5th, 2021|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets September strikes again… If you look back over the last 20 years, September has been the worst performing month for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to Nasdaq. This year, the S&P 500 dropped 4.8 percent in September. That wasn’t enough to wipe out gains from earlier in the third quarter, and the Index finished the quarter slightly higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite Index also tumbled in September. Their losses erased the previous two month’s gains, so the Dow and Nasdaq finished the quarter lower than they started it, reported Caitlin McCabe [...]

28 09, 2021

Weekly Market Commentary – Central banks have a lot of influence on investors, markets and economies.

2021-09-28T14:35:33-04:00September 28th, 2021|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Central banks have a lot of influence on investors, markets and economies. For the last year or so, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing $120 billion of bonds every month to ensure United States markets remained liquid and interest rates remained low during the pandemic. Last Wednesday, the Fed announced that it is ready to begin to buy fewer bonds, a process known as tapering. The Fed’s taper is expected to begin before year-end. The Fed is not expected to push interest rates higher for some time so, overall, monetary policy will continue to support economic growth. [...]

21 09, 2021

Weekly Market Commentary – In recent weeks, bullish sentiment has drifted lower like sediment settling after a storm.

2021-09-21T11:00:55-04:00September 21st, 2021|Weekly Market Commentary|

The MarketsIn recent weeks, bullish sentiment has drifted lower like sediment settling after a storm.Every month, Bank of America (BofA) surveys global asset managers. The most recent survey, which was conducted in early September, showed that fewer managers remain optimistic about prospects for global economic growth (13 percent) or corporate profitability (12 percent). That’s half the number in the previous survey and the lowest percent since April 2020, reported Katie Martin of Financial Times.When optimism declines, managers typically retreat to safer harbors and portfolio exposure to stock declines. That hasn’t happened this time. About one-half of the global asset managers [...]

14 09, 2021

Weekly Market Commentary – The Delta variant could take a toll on economic growth

2021-09-14T10:12:34-04:00September 14th, 2021|Uncategorized, Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets The Delta variant could take a toll on economic growth. There was some good news last week. The 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases in the United States declined. The bad news was that the rate of infection remained about 99 percent higher than it was one year ago. As Delta variant infections surged across the United States, expectations for economic growth dropped more sharply than anticipated. Lisa Beilfuss of Barron’s reported on changes to third-quarter forecasts for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth. “Goldman Sachs cut its forecast to 3.5% from 5.25%, Oxford Economics revised its [...]

8 09, 2021

Weekly Market Commentary – Stagflation isn’t trending, but it was mentioned in quite a few headlines last week.

2021-09-08T10:15:58-04:00September 8th, 2021|Weekly Market Commentary|

The Markets Stagflation isn’t trending, but it was mentioned in quite a few headlines last week. Stagflation is a portmanteau of ‘stagnation’ and ‘inflation.’ It occurs when a country experiences slow economic growth along with high inflation and high unemployment. In the United States: Economic growth was strong during the second quarter; 6.5 percent year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, some forecasts for third quarter’s economic growth have been revised downward. Economists at one large investment bank lowered their estimate from 9 percent to 5.5 percent, reported Lindsay Dunsmuir of Reuters. Inflation is the rise in prices [...]

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