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The Markets The winds of uncertainty are blowing, and the waters are choppy. In recent weeks, United States stock markets saw steady gains, recovered from the April downturn as investors set aside uncertainty,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. Last week, investors became more cautious as they considered: Trade successes and negotiations. Last week, President Trump announced a trade deal with the United Kingdom and, over the weekend, U.S.-China trade negotiations began. “With talks between the US and China about to start, trillions of dollars are hanging in the balance for American companies. The average member of the [Standard & [...]

The Markets American companies did well in the first quarter. During earnings season, publicly held companies tell investors how they performed during the previous quarter with a particular focus on earnings, which reflect company profits. Currently, we’re more than halfway through earnings season, and companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index have reported solid performance results overall. “Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages,” reported John Butters of FactSet. As of last Friday, 72 percent of S&P 500 companies had reported earnings, [...]

The Markets How’s everybody feeling? If you said, “Not great,” you’re not alone. There is an abundance of negative sentiment today. Many people – from consumers to small business owners, and from asset managers to investors – are feeling less optimistic. Here’s the data. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey’s final data for April showed that sentiment tumbled for the fourth month in a row. “While this month’s deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation…Labor market expectations remained bleak. Even more concerning for [...]

The Markets As the market turns... When investor preferences shift and money flows from one sector, industry, investment style or geographic region into another, it is called a market rotation. For years, stock markets in the United States have outperformed stock markets elsewhere. “The outperformance is attributed to U.S. exceptionalism fueled by a strong culture of innovation and entrepreneurship; more flexible labor markets; higher productivity; stronger consumer consumption driving demand for goods and services; a more favorable regulatory environment; lower corporate taxes; stronger intellectual property rights; and more open markets and trade policy,” reported Larry Swedroe of Morningstar. One [...]

The Markets All eyes on the bond market. The scale of the tariffs introduced by the administration shocked investors, sparking a roller coaster of a week for stock markets. Last week, U.S. stocks: Rallied on a rumor. Fell when the rumor was recognized as a rumor. Rose when President Trump paused reciprocal tariffs on most countries for 90-days. Fell as investors considered how the remaining baseline tariffs (10 percent on all countries, steel and aluminum tariffs, and 100%+ tariffs on China) might affect companies and economies. Rallied after the Federal Reserve assured investors it was prepared to step in, [...]

The Markets “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs…” The advice offered by Rudyard Kipling’s poem “If—” resonated last week. A sharp escalation in trade tensions sparked a stock market downturn despite news that the United States economy created far more jobs in March than economists had expected, reported Lucia Mutikani of Reuters. Late Wednesday, President Trump announced tariffs on countries around the world. The tariffs were significantly larger than anticipated, and stock markets immediately moved lower. Over two days, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index lost about $5 trillion in market [...]

The Markets Risk-on. Risk-off. If you read the financial press, you may have seen the terms “risk-on” and “risk-off”.  When investing, there is a risk-return spectrum. Stocks typically have higher risk and higher return potential than high-quality bonds. High-quality bonds have lower risk and lower return potential than stocks, although they typically have higher risk and higher return potential than cash. In financial speak, investors are: Risk-on when they are excited about investing in stocks (and other types of assets that have higher risk profiles). “Risk-on environments can be carried by expanding corporate earnings, optimistic economic outlook, accommodative central [...]

The Markets The market whisperer… Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left the federal funds rate unchanged, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell soothed markets. He explained that conditions in the labor market were broadly in balance and inflation had eased significantly over the past two years. Overall, the possibility of recession, while rising, remained low. Markets rallied following his comments. The economic outlook for 2025 The Fed’s current median forecast for economic growth in 2025 is 1.7 percent, a bit lower than it was in December. In addition, the Fed’s current median estimate for inflation is 2.7 percent, a [...]

The Markets A correction and a bounce. Last week, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index moved into correction territory. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) was already in a correction, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) was close, reported Paul R. LaMonica of Barron’s. A correction occurs when the value of an index drops 10 percent below its most recent peak. The S&P 500 correction occurred remarkably quickly. Just three weeks ago, the index was at a record high amid easing inflation pressures and solid earnings growth. In fact, from December 15 through March 6, the number of [...]

The Markets What do weather and investing have in common? From 1991 to 2020, the average temperature of the United States was 54.7° Fahrenheit. Of course, that doesn’t mean the temperature in every state on every day was 54.7°F. The weather varied dramatically from place to place and month to month. The same is true of investment averages. At the end of February, the average annual total return* for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index over the past 10 years was 12.98 percent. That doesn’t mean the S&P 500 returned 12.98 percent every year – it didn’t. The [...]